Нови изследвания на Николай Неновски


1. Monetary Regimes, Economic Stability, and EU Accession: Comparing Bulgaria and Romania

2. EU enlargement and monetary regimes from the insurance model perspective

3. Theoretical Debates in Bulgaria during the Great Depression. Confronting Sombart, Marx and Keynes



Monetary Regimes, Economic Stability, and EU Accession: Comparing Bulgaria and Romania

Nikolay Nenovsky, University of Orleans and ICER
Kiril Tochkov, Texas Christian University
Camelia Turcu, University of Orleans

(Forthcoming in Kredit und Kapital, 2012)

This paper traces the origins of the different monetary regimes adopted in Bulgaria and Romania in 1996-97 and examines their performance during the EU accession. The findings indicate that the constraints of the currency board in Bulgaria shifted economic activity towards the private sector, while the discretionary policies in Romania turned public finances into both a contributor and a response mechanism to economic imbalances. While the prospects of EU accession initially enhanced the performance of the monetary anchors, the implicit insurance of EU membership increased moral hazard and led to a rapid rise in private (more pronounced in Bulgaria) and public debt (more pronounced in Romania). We propose also some historical parallels between our sample period 1997-2009 and the years 1925-1940 and identify similar differences between the monetary regimes of Bulgaria and Romania. This historical comparative analysis provides a fertile ground for reflection on the cyclical recurrence of certain patterns in the choice of monetary regimes and preferences for specific economic policies.

Keywords: Post-Communist transition; monetary regimes; EU accession; moral hazard; interwar monetary history

Full paper here - http://bma-bg.org/assets/var/docs/papers/nenovsky_turcu_tochkov_2010(2011).pdf



EU enlargement and monetary regimes from the insurance model perspective

Nikolay Nenovsky & Patrick Villieu 2011

Post-Communist Economies, 23:4, 433-447


It is widely observed and recognised that economic behaviour in the post-communist countries changed after these countries joined the European Union. The insurance model of currency crises proposed by Dooley, after being modified and interpreted ithin a broader conceptual meaning, provides good possibilities for analysing the whole process of post-communist transformation and EU accession. This article offers an empirical illustration of the theoretical model using the examples of Bulgaria and Romania. These two Balkan countries, the latest members of the EU (since 2007), have adically different monetary regimes – respectively a currency board and inflation targeting.

Full paper here - http://bma-bg.org/assets/var/docs/papers/nenovsky_villieu_PC_2011.pdf



Theoretical Debates in Bulgaria during the Great Depression

Confronting Sombart, Marx and Keynes

Nikolay Nenovsky

OEconomia – History | Methodology | Philosophy, 2(1) : 67-101 


The main purpose of this article is to understand how Bulgarian economists interpreted the Great Depression, by reviewing thetheoretical models they used and the solutions they advocated. In particular, this means: (i) clarifying what made them gradually realise the structural characteristics of the crisis and (ii) identifying the main
channels and the main theories underlying the analysis of crises and depressions. The paper comprises six sections. The first section offers a brief survey of the Bulgarian economy and political developments prior to the Depression. Section two presents Bulgarian economic thought on the eve of the Depression according to five intellectual
currents. Section three identifies and discusses the two main models of interpretation of the Great Depression—a cyclical and a structural model. The next two sections explain the evolution of economic thinking following the main phases of the crisis (deflation/agrarian crisis and monetary/banking crisis). Section six focuses on Marxist
interpretations of the crisis. The last section offers a few concluding observations.

Keywords : Great Depression, Balkan economies, Bulgaria,Marxism, agrarianism, crises, Keynes

Full paper here - http://bma-bg.org/assets/var/docs/papers/great-depression_Bulgarie_Nenovsky.pdf